Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026. Final score 3–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 60% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Borussia Dortmund at 70%, the draw at 19% and SC Paderborn 07 at 12%, from expected goals of 2.22 and 0.78.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Borussia Dortmund have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), SC Paderborn 07 0 in 2 (0 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 60% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 2.22 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.78 for SC Paderborn 07. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 2 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Borussia Dortmund season stats · SC Paderborn 07 season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.