Sport Recife v Ponte Preta — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie B · Friday, 11 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Serie B average is 40%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Sport Recife at 73%, the draw at 17% and Ponte Preta at 11%, from expected goals of 2.41 and 0.81.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Sport Recife have 11 in 25 this season (6 of 13 at home), Ponte Preta 15 in 33 (8 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 44%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 43%.

Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.41 for Sport Recife and 0.81 for Ponte Preta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Sport Recife season stats · Ponte Preta season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.