Canadian Premier League · Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 55% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts York United at 61%, the draw at 18% and Pacific FC at 21%, from expected goals of 2.48 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. York United have 10 in 17 this season (6 of 8 at home), Pacific FC 12 in 18 (5 of 8 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 13 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 46%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 2.48 for York United and 1.42 for Pacific FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 17 | 59% | 53% | 76% |
| Pacific FC | 18 | 67% | 39% | 78% |
More: York United season stats · Pacific FC season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.