MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 03:30. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | no pick |
The result model puts Los Angeles FC at 62%, the draw at 21% and New York Red Bulls at 17%, from expected goals of 1.98 and 0.92.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Los Angeles FC have 11 in 23 this season (6 of 12 at home), New York Red Bulls 14 in 22 (8 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.98 for Los Angeles FC and 0.92 for New York Red Bulls. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 23 | 48% | 30% | 39% |
| New York Red Bulls | 22 | 64% | 45% | 73% |
More: Los Angeles FC season stats · New York Red Bulls season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.