Chicago Fire v Inter Miami — prediction, stats and goal analysis

MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 60%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Chicago Fire at 40%, the draw at 22% and Inter Miami at 38%, from expected goals of 1.82 and 1.77.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Chicago Fire have 16 in 21 this season (8 of 10 at home), Inter Miami 17 in 22 (9 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 69%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.

Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 69%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 70%, from expected goals of 1.82 for Chicago Fire and 1.77 for Inter Miami. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Chicago Fire season stats · Inter Miami season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.