Serie B · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | 81% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Fortaleza EC at 55%, the draw at 25% and Avai at 20%, from expected goals of 1.61 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fortaleza EC have 9 in 25 this season (6 of 12 at home), Avai 11 in 25 (6 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 40% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.61 for Fortaleza EC and 0.85 for Avai. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | 25 | 36% | 12% | 40% |
| Avai | 25 | 44% | 16% | 48% |
More: Fortaleza EC season stats · Avai season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.