Erovnuli Liga · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Erovnuli Liga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Dinamo Batumi at 40%, the draw at 22% and FC Iberia 1999 at 38%, from expected goals of 1.78 and 1.71.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dinamo Batumi have 16 in 23 this season (9 of 11 at home), FC Iberia 1999 10 in 21 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.78 for Dinamo Batumi and 1.71 for FC Iberia 1999. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Batumi | 23 | 70% | 39% | 57% |
| FC Iberia 1999 | 21 | 48% | 19% | 52% |
More: Dinamo Batumi season stats · FC Iberia 1999 season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.