Primera Nacional · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 23% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 23% | 77% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 6% | 94% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 35% | 65% | No |
The result model puts Defensores De Belgrano at 25%, the draw at 38% and Los Andes at 37%, from expected goals of 0.6 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Defensores De Belgrano have 6 in 26 this season (2 of 12 at home), Los Andes 5 in 26 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 25% and 25%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 26%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 17%, from expected goals of 0.6 for Defensores De Belgrano and 0.81 for Los Andes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 23%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensores De Belgrano | 26 | 23% | 0% | 35% |
| Los Andes | 26 | 19% | 4% | 19% |
More: Defensores De Belgrano season stats · Los Andes season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.