Cuiaba v Athletic Club — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Serie B · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 35% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Cuiaba at 44%, the draw at 29% and Athletic Club at 27%, from expected goals of 1.24 and 0.92.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Cuiaba have 5 in 25 this season (1 of 13 at home), Athletic Club 11 in 33 (7 of 16 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 38%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 34%.

Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 34%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.24 for Cuiaba and 0.92 for Athletic Club. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Cuiaba season stats · Athletic Club season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.