Serie B · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 01:30. Our rating makes this 31% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 40%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 69% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12% | 88% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Criciuma at 49%, the draw at 30% and Juventude at 21%, from expected goals of 1.23 and 0.68.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 40% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Criciuma have 5 in 25 this season (1 of 12 at home), Juventude 6 in 25 (3 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 27% and 32%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 32%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 31%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 30%, from expected goals of 1.23 for Criciuma and 0.68 for Juventude. Folding in 30% of that view gives 31%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Criciuma season stats · Juventude season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.