Al-Fateh v Al Diriyah — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Pro League · Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Pro League average is 56%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Al-Fateh at 28%, the draw at 28% and Al Diriyah at 44%, from expected goals of 1 and 1.32.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Al-Fateh have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Al Diriyah 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 46% and 53%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1 for Al-Fateh and 1.32 for Al Diriyah. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Al-Fateh season stats · Al Diriyah season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.