Meistriliiga · Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistriliiga average is 67%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Trans Narva at 16%, the draw at 20% and Flora Tallinn at 63%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 2.06.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Trans Narva have 17 in 25 this season (9 of 13 at home), Flora Tallinn 19 in 24 (10 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 74%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 70%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 82%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Trans Narva and 2.06 for Flora Tallinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trans Narva | 25 | 68% | 24% | 40% |
| Flora Tallinn | 24 | 79% | 33% | 50% |
More: Trans Narva season stats · Flora Tallinn season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.