Pro League · Tuesday, 8 September 2026 · 16:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Pro League average is 56%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Al-Ettifaq at 48%, the draw at 21% and Al-Faisaly FC at 31%, from expected goals of 2.16 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. Pro League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Al-Ettifaq have 3 in 4 this season (3 of 3 at home), Al-Faisaly FC 2 in 4 (2 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 60% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.16 for Al-Ettifaq and 1.72 for Al-Faisaly FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al-Ettifaq | 4 | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Al-Faisaly FC | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
More: Al-Ettifaq season stats · Al-Faisaly FC season stats · Pro League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.