Liga I · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga I average is 46%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Universitatea Craiova at 69%, the draw at 20% and Universitatea Cluj at 11%, from expected goals of 1.99 and 0.66.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Universitatea Craiova have 4 in 7 this season (3 of 4 at home), Universitatea Cluj 5 in 6 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 55%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.99 for Universitatea Craiova and 0.66 for Universitatea Cluj. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 7 | 57% | 57% | 57% |
| Universitatea Cluj | 6 | 83% | 17% | 83% |
More: Universitatea Craiova season stats · Universitatea Cluj season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.