NWSL (W) · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Orlando Pride W at 51%, the draw at 26% and Houston Dash W at 22%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Orlando Pride W have 13 in 22 this season (7 of 11 at home), Houston Dash W 11 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.51 for Orlando Pride W and 0.9 for Houston Dash W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pride W | 22 | 59% | 27% | 50% |
| Houston Dash W | 22 | 50% | 27% | 45% |
More: Orlando Pride W season stats · Houston Dash W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.