Super Liga · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 43% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super Liga average is 50%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 57% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts OFK Beograd at 40%, the draw at 30% and IMT Novi Beograd at 30%, from expected goals of 1.12 and 0.93.
The league sets the starting point. Super Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. OFK Beograd have 4 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), IMT Novi Beograd 3 in 7 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 34%, from expected goals of 1.12 for OFK Beograd and 0.93 for IMT Novi Beograd. Folding in 30% of that view gives 43%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFK Beograd | 7 | 57% | 57% | 43% |
| IMT Novi Beograd | 7 | 43% | 14% | 29% |
More: OFK Beograd season stats · IMT Novi Beograd season stats · Super Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.