Primera Nacional · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 23:30. Our rating makes this 28% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Nacional average is 30%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 28% | 72% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 89% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 33% | 67% | No |
The result model puts Nueva Chicago at 45%, the draw at 31% and Quilmes at 24%, from expected goals of 1.14 and 0.74.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Nacional has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nueva Chicago have 7 in 27 this season (4 of 13 at home), Quilmes 9 in 27 (5 of 13 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 28% and 33%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 30%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 27%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 29%, from expected goals of 1.14 for Nueva Chicago and 0.74 for Quilmes. Folding in 30% of that view gives 28%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nueva Chicago | 27 | 26% | 11% | 30% |
| Quilmes | 27 | 33% | 11% | 26% |
More: Nueva Chicago season stats · Quilmes season stats · Primera Nacional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.