Mardin 1969 v Bodrum FK — prediction, stats and goal analysis

1. Lig · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The 1. Lig average is 52%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Mardin 1969 at 33%, the draw at 28% and Bodrum FK at 39%, from expected goals of 1.09 and 1.22.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Mardin 1969 have 1 in 4 this season (0 of 2 at home), Bodrum FK 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 47% and 49%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 55% and 47%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.09 for Mardin 1969 and 1.22 for Bodrum FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Mardin 1969 season stats · Bodrum FK season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.