Allsvenskan · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Malmo FF at 34%, the draw at 22% and AIK Stockholm at 44%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.9.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Malmo FF have 13 in 19 this season (9 of 9 at home), AIK Stockholm 12 in 18 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 65% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Malmo FF and 1.9 for AIK Stockholm. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF | 19 | 68% | 47% | 63% |
| AIK Stockholm | 18 | 67% | 28% | 67% |
More: Malmo FF season stats · AIK Stockholm season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.