Ykkosliiga · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ykkosliiga average is 60%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Klubi-04 at 44%, the draw at 26% and KäPa at 30%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Ykkosliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Klubi-04 have 6 in 21 this season (3 of 10 at home), KäPa 14 in 21 (8 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 45% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 40%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Klubi-04 and 1.17 for KäPa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Klubi-04 season stats · KäPa season stats · Ykkosliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.