Canadian Premier League · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 20:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Canadian Premier League average is 58%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts HFX Wanderers FC at 25%, the draw at 27% and Cavalry FC at 49%, from expected goals of 0.95 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Canadian Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. HFX Wanderers FC have 11 in 20 this season (5 of 9 at home), Cavalry FC 9 in 19 (3 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 11 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 45%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 0.95 for HFX Wanderers FC and 1.45 for Cavalry FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HFX Wanderers FC | 20 | 55% | 40% | 65% |
| Cavalry FC | 19 | 47% | 21% | 47% |
More: HFX Wanderers FC season stats · Cavalry FC season stats · Canadian Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.