Hapoel Tel Aviv v Hapoel Ramat Gan — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Ligat Ha'al · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 55%.

Open this match in the app →

Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 66%, the draw at 21% and Hapoel Ramat Gan at 13%, from expected goals of 1.96 and 0.74.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Hapoel Tel Aviv have 0 in 1 this season, Hapoel Ramat Gan 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 59%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 44% and 55%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.96 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.74 for Hapoel Ramat Gan. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Hapoel Tel Aviv season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.