Hapoel Beer Sheva v Maccabi Tel Aviv — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Ligat Ha'al · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 55%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Hapoel Beer Sheva at 43%, the draw at 21% and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 36%, from expected goals of 1.97 and 1.8.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Hapoel Beer Sheva have 1 in 1 this season, Maccabi Tel Aviv 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 56% and 67%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.

Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 42%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 58%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 1.97 for Hapoel Beer Sheva and 1.8 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

Head to head

More: Hapoel Beer Sheva season stats · Maccabi Tel Aviv season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.