First League · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Dunav Ruse at 27%, the draw at 27% and Slavia Sofia at 47%, from expected goals of 1.02 and 1.44.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Dunav Ruse have 5 in 7 this season (1 of 3 at home), Slavia Sofia 1 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 40%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 48% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.02 for Dunav Ruse and 1.44 for Slavia Sofia. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 7 | 71% | 29% | 71% |
| Slavia Sofia | 6 | 17% | 0% | 50% |
More: Dunav Ruse season stats · Slavia Sofia season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.