Super League · Monday, 7 September 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Super League average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Asteras Tripolis at 54%, the draw at 24% and Iraklis 1908 at 21%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 0.94.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Asteras Tripolis have 1 in 2 this season (0 of 1 at home), Iraklis 1908 1 in 2 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 47% and 47%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 48%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Asteras Tripolis and 0.94 for Iraklis 1908. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Iraklis 1908 | 2 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
More: Asteras Tripolis season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.