J2 League · Sunday, 6 September 2026. Final score 5–0 (half-time 1–0). Rebuilt from the season as it stood that morning, our rating would have been 49% for over 2.5 goals. This match is older than our frozen ratings ledger, which keeps 30 days, so that figure is a reconstruction from pre-match data rather than a number we published at the time — a distinction worth making, because only the frozen ones prove what we actually said beforehand.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Yokohama FC at 42%, the draw at 26% and Albirex Niigata at 32%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. J2 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Yokohama FC have 2 in 4 this season (2 of 2 at home), Albirex Niigata 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Yokohama FC and 1.29 for Albirex Niigata. Folding in 30% of that view gives 48%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama FC | 4 | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Albirex Niigata | 4 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
More: Yokohama FC season stats · Albirex Niigata season stats · J2 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.