3. Liga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 63% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 37% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Würzburger Kickers at 55%, the draw at 21% and Stuttgart II at 25%, from expected goals of 2.11 and 1.37.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Würzburger Kickers have 3 in 3 this season (1 of 1 at home), Stuttgart II 2 in 3 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 49% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 2.11 for Würzburger Kickers and 1.37 for Stuttgart II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 63%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Würzburger Kickers | 3 | 100% | 67% | 33% |
| Stuttgart II | 3 | 67% | 67% | 67% |
More: Würzburger Kickers season stats · Stuttgart II season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.