Liga MX · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga MX average is 55%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 47%, the draw at 28% and Leon at 25%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 0.89.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55% | 47% | -8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 45% | 53% | +8% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 56% | 61% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.80, draw 3.70, Leon 4.20.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. U.N.A.M. - Pumas have 3 in 6 this season (1 of 3 at home), Leon 2 in 6 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 38%, from expected goals of 1.32 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 0.89 for Leon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 6 | 50% | 17% | 50% |
| Leon | 6 | 33% | 17% | 50% |
More: U.N.A.M. - Pumas season stats · Leon season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.