Erovnuli Liga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Erovnuli Liga average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Torpedo Kutaisi at 33%, the draw at 25% and Dinamo Tbilisi at 41%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.46.
The league sets the starting point. Erovnuli Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Torpedo Kutaisi have 12 in 23 this season (7 of 12 at home), Dinamo Tbilisi 14 in 22 (7 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.28 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 1.46 for Dinamo Tbilisi. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torpedo Kutaisi | 23 | 52% | 26% | 57% |
| Dinamo Tbilisi | 22 | 64% | 23% | 64% |
More: Torpedo Kutaisi season stats · Dinamo Tbilisi season stats · Erovnuli Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.