Urvalsdeild · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Urvalsdeild average is 62%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Thor Akureyri at 36%, the draw at 23% and FH Hafnarfjordur at 40%, from expected goals of 1.58 and 1.67.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 61% | -4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 35% | 39% | +4% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 64% | 0% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Thor Akureyri 2.90, draw 3.70, FH Hafnarfjordur 2.00.
The league sets the starting point. Urvalsdeild has produced over 2.5 goals in 62% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Thor Akureyri have 12 in 21 this season (6 of 10 at home), FH Hafnarfjordur 11 in 21 (6 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.58 for Thor Akureyri and 1.67 for FH Hafnarfjordur. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 21 | 57% | 43% | 52% |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 21 | 52% | 33% | 67% |
More: Thor Akureyri season stats · FH Hafnarfjordur season stats · Urvalsdeild table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.