USL Championship · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Tampa Bay Rowdies at 67%, the draw at 16% and Brooklyn at 17%, from expected goals of 2.85 and 1.43.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 61% | +1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.38 | 39% | 39% | -1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 51% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.27, draw 5.00, Brooklyn 8.00.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Tampa Bay Rowdies have 9 in 22 this season (7 of 10 at home), Brooklyn 12 in 20 (9 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 59%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 2.85 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 1.43 for Brooklyn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rowdies | 22 | 41% | 27% | 41% |
| Brooklyn | 20 | 60% | 35% | 45% |
More: Tampa Bay Rowdies season stats · Brooklyn season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.