USL Championship · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Sporting JAX at 29%, the draw at 22% and Lexington at 50%, from expected goals of 1.46 and 1.98.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58% | 58% | +0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 42% | 42% | 0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 54% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Sporting JAX 3.70, draw 3.60, Lexington 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sporting JAX have 16 in 22 this season (8 of 10 at home), Lexington 11 in 22 (5 of 10 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 67%, from expected goals of 1.46 for Sporting JAX and 1.98 for Lexington. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting JAX | 22 | 73% | 55% | 64% |
| Lexington | 22 | 50% | 32% | 50% |
More: Sporting JAX season stats · Lexington season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.