Women's Championship (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Women's Championship (W) average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Sheffield United W at 20%, the draw at 24% and Leicester City FC W at 56%, from expected goals of 0.94 and 1.75.
The league sets the starting point. Women's Championship (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Sheffield United W have 13 in 22 this season (6 of 11 at home), Leicester City FC W 11 in 23 (5 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 50%, from expected goals of 0.94 for Sheffield United W and 1.75 for Leicester City FC W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United W | 22 | 59% | 32% | 64% |
| Leicester City FC W | 23 | 48% | 30% | 39% |
More: Sheffield United W season stats · Leicester City FC W season stats · Women's Championship (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.