Super League · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 64% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 36% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Servette FC at 28%, the draw at 21% and FC ST. Gallen at 51%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 2.03.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 61% | 64% | +3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.40 | 39% | 36% | -3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 65% | 68% | +4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Servette FC 2.20, draw 3.60, FC ST. Gallen 2.90.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Servette FC have 2 in 4 this season (1 of 3 at home), FC ST. Gallen 4 in 4 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 72%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 71%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 22%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Servette FC and 2.03 for FC ST. Gallen. Folding in 30% of that view gives 64%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Servette FC | 4 | 50% | 0% | 75% |
| FC ST. Gallen | 4 | 100% | 75% | 100% |
More: Servette FC season stats · FC ST. Gallen season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.