Liga Profesional · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 18:45. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga Profesional average is 34%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 43% | 57% | No |
The result model puts Rosario Central at 62%, the draw at 22% and Newells Old Boys at 16%, from expected goals of 1.88 and 0.82.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 35% | 42% | +7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65% | 58% | -7% |
| Both teams to score | 2.50 | 38% | 43% | +5% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Rosario Central 1.73, draw 2.90, Newells Old Boys 6.25.
The league sets the starting point. Liga Profesional has produced over 2.5 goals in 34% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Rosario Central have 13 in 26 this season (7 of 13 at home), Newells Old Boys 9 in 23 (6 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 39%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 40%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 38%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.88 for Rosario Central and 0.82 for Newells Old Boys. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rosario Central | 26 | 50% | 12% | 62% |
| Newells Old Boys | 23 | 39% | 22% | 52% |
More: Rosario Central season stats · Newells Old Boys season stats · Liga Profesional table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.