NWSL (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The NWSL (W) average is 47%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | 79% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Portland Thorns W at 44%, the draw at 30% and Washington Spirit W at 26%, from expected goals of 1.16 and 0.81.
The league sets the starting point. NWSL (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Portland Thorns W have 12 in 22 this season (4 of 10 at home), Washington Spirit W 8 in 22 (4 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 45%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 32%, from expected goals of 1.16 for Portland Thorns W and 0.81 for Washington Spirit W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Thorns W | 22 | 55% | 41% | 55% |
| Washington Spirit W | 22 | 36% | 18% | 41% |
More: Portland Thorns W season stats · Washington Spirit W season stats · NWSL (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.