Nürnberg W v Stuttgart W — prediction, stats and goal analysis

Frauen-Bundesliga (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 17:30. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Frauen-Bundesliga (W) average is 67%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Nürnberg W at 23%, the draw at 18% and Stuttgart W at 59%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 2.64.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. Frauen-Bundesliga (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Nürnberg W have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Stuttgart W 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 67% and 70%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 69% and 70%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 69%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Nürnberg W and 2.64 for Stuttgart W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Nürnberg W season stats · Frauen-Bundesliga (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.