1. Lig · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Muğlaspor at 44%, the draw at 27% and Vanspor FK at 29%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 1.07.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 45% | 47% | +2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.70 | 55% | 53% | -2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 47% | -2% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Muğlaspor 1.83, draw 3.25, Vanspor FK 3.80.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Muğlaspor have 0 in 5 this season (0 of 2 at home), Vanspor FK 2 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 43% and 52%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 42% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 45%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Muğlaspor and 1.07 for Vanspor FK. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muğlaspor | 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vanspor FK | 4 | 50% | 50% | 75% |
More: Muğlaspor season stats · Vanspor FK season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.