USL Championship · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Miami FC at 31%, the draw at 27% and Pittsburgh Riverhounds at 42%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.38.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.20 | 43% | 49% | +6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 57% | 51% | -6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 49% | 51% | +3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Miami FC 2.90, draw 3.20, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2.20.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Miami FC have 12 in 22 this season (7 of 11 at home), Pittsburgh Riverhounds 9 in 23 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Miami FC and 1.38 for Pittsburgh Riverhounds. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami FC | 22 | 55% | 36% | 50% |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 23 | 39% | 17% | 39% |
More: Miami FC season stats · Pittsburgh Riverhounds season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.