First League · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 19:15. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First League average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 70% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Lokomotiv Sofia at 18%, the draw at 20% and Ludogorets at 62%, from expected goals of 1.04 and 2.12.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 53% | 52% | -1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47% | 48% | +1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50% | 47% | -3% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Lokomotiv Sofia 5.00, draw 4.00, Ludogorets 1.57.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lokomotiv Sofia have 4 in 6 this season (2 of 2 at home), Ludogorets 2 in 7 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 51% and 41%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 51% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.04 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 2.12 for Ludogorets. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 6 | 67% | 50% | 100% |
| Ludogorets | 7 | 29% | 14% | 57% |
More: Lokomotiv Sofia season stats · Ludogorets season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.