Liga 2 · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga 2 average is 44%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 53% | No |
The result model puts Leixoes at 36%, the draw at 25% and Amarante at 38%, from expected goals of 1.36 and 1.41.
The league sets the starting point. Liga 2 has produced over 2.5 goals in 44% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leixoes have 1 in 4 this season (1 of 2 at home), Amarante 1 in 4 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 42% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 4 and 4 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 54% and 42%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 1.36 for Leixoes and 1.41 for Amarante. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
More: Leixoes season stats · Amarante season stats · Liga 2 table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.