Primera Division · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 21:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Primera Division average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Juan Pablo II College at 25%, the draw at 29% and Alianza Lima at 46%, from expected goals of 0.84 and 1.26.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 44% | -2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 56% | +2% |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46% | 53% | +6% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Juan Pablo II College 4.75, draw 3.60, Alianza Lima 1.70.
The league sets the starting point. Primera Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Juan Pablo II College have 15 in 24 this season (7 of 12 at home), Alianza Lima 9 in 24 (2 of 12 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 40%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 0.84 for Juan Pablo II College and 1.26 for Alianza Lima. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Pablo II College | 24 | 63% | 42% | 67% |
| Alianza Lima | 24 | 38% | 17% | 50% |
More: Juan Pablo II College season stats · Alianza Lima season stats · Primera Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.