Women's Championship (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Women's Championship (W) average is 52%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | Yes |
The result model puts Ipswich Town W at 39%, the draw at 25% and Nottingham Forest W at 36%, from expected goals of 1.44 and 1.36.
The league sets the starting point. Women's Championship (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ipswich Town W have 14 in 22 this season (8 of 11 at home), Nottingham Forest W 13 in 22 (5 of 11 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 56%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.44 for Ipswich Town W and 1.36 for Nottingham Forest W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Town W | 22 | 64% | 32% | 64% |
| Nottingham Forest W | 22 | 59% | 23% | 55% |
More: Ipswich Town W season stats · Nottingham Forest W season stats · Women's Championship (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.