USL Championship · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 00:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The USL Championship average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 56% | 44% | Yes |
The result model puts Indy Eleven at 53%, the draw at 21% and Birmingham Legion at 26%, from expected goals of 2.12 and 1.45.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59% | 56% | -3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 41% | 44% | +3% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 56% | -1% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: Indy Eleven 1.67, draw 3.70, Birmingham Legion 4.00.
The league sets the starting point. USL Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Indy Eleven have 9 in 20 this season (5 of 10 at home), Birmingham Legion 10 in 20 (6 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 2.12 for Indy Eleven and 1.45 for Birmingham Legion. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Eleven | 20 | 45% | 25% | 55% |
| Birmingham Legion | 20 | 50% | 35% | 70% |
More: Indy Eleven season stats · Birmingham Legion season stats · USL Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.