Allsvenskan · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Allsvenskan average is 53%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts IF Brommapojkarna at 38%, the draw at 27% and IF Elfsborg at 35%, from expected goals of 1.29 and 1.22.
| Market | Price | Implied | Our rating | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.75 | 54% | 53% | 0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 46% | 47% | +0% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 58% | 54% | -4% |
Implied percentages have the bookmaker's margin removed, so they add to 100 and can be compared with our rating directly. Edge is simply the gap between the two. A positive edge means our model thinks the outcome is likelier than the price suggests — it is not a tip, and a high probability with a negative edge is a poor bet however safe it looks. Prices are a pre-match snapshot from a single bookmaker and move constantly.
Match odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.00, draw 3.50, IF Elfsborg 2.15.
The league sets the starting point. Allsvenskan has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. IF Brommapojkarna have 14 in 19 this season (5 of 9 at home), IF Elfsborg 8 in 19 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 83%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.29 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.22 for IF Elfsborg. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IF Brommapojkarna | 19 | 74% | 37% | 74% |
| IF Elfsborg | 19 | 42% | 16% | 63% |
More: IF Brommapojkarna season stats · IF Elfsborg season stats · Allsvenskan table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.