Serie B · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 16:15. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 49%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Hellas Verona at 45%, the draw at 25% and Arezzo at 30%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.2.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hellas Verona have 1 in 2 this season (1 of 1 at home), Arezzo 2 in 2 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 2 and 2 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 50% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Hellas Verona and 1.2 for Arezzo. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona | 2 | 50% | 0% | 100% |
| Arezzo | 2 | 100% | 50% | 100% |
More: Hellas Verona season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.