Damallsvenskan (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Damallsvenskan (W) average is 65%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Häcken W at 53%, the draw at 22% and Malmö FF W at 25%, from expected goals of 1.89 and 1.24.
The league sets the starting point. Damallsvenskan (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Häcken W have 12 in 16 this season (5 of 7 at home), Malmö FF W 8 in 16 (4 of 9 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 3 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.89 for Häcken W and 1.24 for Malmö FF W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Häcken W | 16 | 75% | 44% | 50% |
| Malmö FF W | 16 | 50% | 25% | 38% |
More: Häcken W season stats · Malmö FF W season stats · Damallsvenskan (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.