Gyori ETO FC v Budapest Honved — prediction, stats and goal analysis

NB I · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 19:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 60%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Gyori ETO FC at 73%, the draw at 18% and Budapest Honved at 9%, from expected goals of 2.16 and 0.61.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 60% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Gyori ETO FC have 3 in 5 this season (2 of 2 at home), Budapest Honved 3 in 5 (1 of 2 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 59%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 53% and 59%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 52%, from expected goals of 2.16 for Gyori ETO FC and 0.61 for Budapest Honved. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Gyori ETO FC season stats · Budapest Honved season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.