Liga F (W) · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 11:45. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Liga F (W) average is 51%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 59% | No |
The result model puts Granad. Tenerife W at 71%, the draw at 18% and Deportivo de La Coruña W at 11%, from expected goals of 2.25 and 0.75.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Granad. Tenerife W have 1 in 1 this season, Deportivo de La Coruña W 0 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 41% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 10% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 45%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 58%, from expected goals of 2.25 for Granad. Tenerife W and 0.75 for Deportivo de La Coruña W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granad. Tenerife W | 1 | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 1 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
More: Granad. Tenerife W season stats · Deportivo de La Coruña W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.