Fortuna Köln v Fortuna Düsseldorf — prediction, stats and goal analysis

3. Liga · Sunday, 6 September 2026 · 18:30. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.

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Our ratings for this match

The result model puts Fortuna Köln at 36%, the draw at 23% and Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 1.66.

How we got this number

The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.

Each side's own record. Fortuna Köln have 1 in 3 this season (0 of 1 at home), Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 in 3 (1 of 1 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 32 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 60% and 62%.

Last season still counts, briefly. With 3 and 3 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 14 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. That moves the two figures to 61% and 57%.

The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 60%.

Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Fortuna Köln and 1.66 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.

This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.

Season form

More: Fortuna Köln season stats · Fortuna Düsseldorf season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.